- Congressional negotiators reach tentative deal on payroll tax cut, jobless aid … – Fox News (foxnews.com)
- Economic Growth Gives Lift to Obama in NYT/CBS Poll – New York Times (nytimes.com)
- Obama stresses economic roles with China’s expected new leader – CNN International (edition.cnn.com)
- White House unveils tougher Iran oil curbs – Financial Times (ft.com)
- Divided Opposition: Key to Syrian Power – TIME (time.com)
- U.S. brigadier general dies in Afghanistan (cnn.com)
- Top U.S. officer dies in Afghanistan (edition.cnn.com)
- CGSC Foundation Receives $6.1 Million Pledge From H. Ross Perot (prweb.com)
- Investigation after Brigadier General Terence Hildner becomes highest-ranking officer to die in Afghanistan so far (dailymail.co.uk)
- CGSC Foundation’s ‘Col. Arthur D. Simons Center’ Opens at Fort Leavenworth (prweb.com)
- CGSC Foundation Continues Partnership with Flint Hills Resources (prweb.com)
- CGSC Foundation Presents Ross Perot with 2010 Distinguished Leadership Award (prweb.com)
- Military base closings are possible in central Pennsylvania (pennlive.com)
- Military’s Lock-Step Promotion System (outsidethebeltway.com)
- Central Pennsylvania could be gearing up to fight rounds of military closures (pennlive.com)
I am rarely in agreement with Richard Cohen, but I admire his willingness to take a position. His discussion of the increasing gap between the nation and it’s Army is spot on.
The Vietnam War Army happened to have been my Army. I was on active duty as a reservist, not for very long but long enough for the Army to have lost all its mystery. I found the Army to be no better and no worse than other large institutions. Some of its leaders were fools, and some soldiers were thieves, and everyone wasted money like there was no tomorrow. This is the truth and everyone once knew it.
No more. I sometimes think I am the only person around who has been in the military. This is because most people I know are college-educated professionals, many of them writers. But if I throw in politicians and even the White House staff, nothing much changes. Lots of people know the expression “lock ‘n load” but very few know how to do it.
- Military Reservists and Retirement Withdrawals (turbotax.intuit.com)
- Army Suicide Data – Nov 2010 (waronterrornews.typepad.com)
- Former Reagan, Bush official killed, police say (msnbc.msn.com)
- Oct 2010 Army Suicides (waronterrornews.typepad.com)
- “‘N-word’ Removed From New Version Of Mark Twain Classic Huckleberry Finn” and related posts (celebdirtylaundry.com)
- “Pakistan: Salman Taseer’s Tragic Assassination And The Blasphemy Law” and related posts (globalvoicesonline.org)
- “ASUS Eee Pad MeMO tablet takes a pen out of the Courier’s book” and related posts (engadget.com)
- “Report: Taylor Swift And Jake Gyllenhaal Call It Quits” and related posts (imnotobsessed.com)
- Footnote.com and the National Archives Release New Vietnam War Photos and Records Online (eon.businesswire.com)
- Ceremony marks deployment of Army Reservists (dispatch.com)
- “Gerry Rafferty, Singer of ‘Baker Street,’ Dead at 63” and related posts (spinner.com)
- Army Suicide Data-Sep 2010 (waronterrornews.typepad.com)
- Guest Post: Day at the Beach [Part 2] (vamortgagecenter.com)
- Army Jackets for Fall (beso.com)
- Vietnam Vets Memorial creator found dead (capitolhillblue.com)
- Reflecting on a strategic inflection point at CGSC in Army education (kansasreflections.wordpress.com)
- Thanksgiving reflection (kansasreflections.wordpress.com)
- No time for truth telling, it’s the story! (kansasreflections.wordpress.com)
- More reflections on Mintzberg on planning (kansasreflections.wordpress.com)
- Late night reflections on theory (kansasreflections.wordpress.com)
The Army is finally reading the signals from DoD that the budgetary truth has changed. Not only are major programs under review, but our force structure itself is the oibject of scrutiny. We could very easily see a return of a Division based Army once more, organized around major troop installations, acting as a resource manager for deploying force packages.
If things change, just wait a decade…?
Related articles by Zemanta
- British Cuts to Military Concern U.S. Officials (nytimes.com)
- Alion Wins $2.4M Contract to Help Army Evaluate and Prioritize Warfighter Capabilities (eon.businesswire.com)
- David Isenberg: When Doing More With Less Is Not A Good Idea (huffingtonpost.com)
- Body parts, photos part of charges against soldiers (msnbc.msn.com)
- The Last Defense Conservative (themoderatevoice.com)
- Army Ends GED Program for Aspiring Soldiers (vamortgagecenter.com)
- Territorial Army faces deep cuts (telegraph.co.uk)
- Jeremy White: Plan to Cut the Defense Budget by $150 Billion over 5 years (huffingtonpost.com)
- Afghan killings, body parts at center of inquiry (msnbc.msn.com)
- Armed Forces considering how to chop military budget (telegraph.co.uk)
I am an instructor of logistics and resource operations, and a curriculum designer at the US Army Command & General Staff College at Ft Leavenworth. My 25 yrs of service were as an infantryman and a practitioner of brute force military logistics.
having retired, I am trying to add rigor to my own teaching, our curriculum and our field grade officer students by introducing and demonstrating the cumulative effects of uncertainty in large transportation networks in a theater of operations. I am a fan of your work and have reasonable practical excel skills.
I need to model the following “story problem” and provide a visual tool that allows students to make assumptions about the nature of the complex movement, to turn those assumptions into a visual distribution, and then monte carlo the results to see the performance of the transportation network contained within the set of their assumptions. The next step would be for them to vary their assumptions to see the effects, in order to reveal which of their assumptions are important and sensitive, so they can make decisions about where to deploy units in order to affect the plan.
1. should we employ the Military Police brigade forward to guard an assembly area at the end of the network and thereby accept risk along the lines of communication, or should we guard the roads and accept risk forward near the battle area?
2. What are the Intelligence officers estimate of how many days out of 100 that the weather will degrade road movements by 1 of perhaps 5 categories (0 -.2)(.2 -.4)(.4 -.6)(.6 -.8)(.8 -1.) or to pick a distribution from among a set of choices that represents their estimate.
3. If we move a civilian population away from the battle pre-emptively, what will that do to our performance (ie no displaced civilians around to clog the roads in the heat of combat) vs waiting until the last minute
The transportation challenge in our scenario: sitting on the ground at 2 seaports waiting to be moved forward are 750 Army units, and 100,000 short tons of cargo, with “x” number of trucks, over poor roads, a distance of 600km and about 2000km of total road network, , with an uncertain enemy, an uncertain civlian population, with a variable degree of road march discipline among the 750 units, and a choice of parameters about how fast and how densely we may organize our movements, mission to be completed in less than 100 days. The commander needs our estimate of how soon we’ll be done. we need to express that reasonably and with proper confidence, and give him choices
there are so many variables and combinations, that we cannot rely on our intuitions to describe our capabilities and expected performance in a meaningful way to a commander. we cant describe the impact of the choices he has
My problem: the military ORSA community at TRAC (TRADOC Research and Analysis Center) are interested but without much funding, I cannot jump to the head of the line; I believe either XLsim 3 or Risk Solver will do everything I need, but i’d appreciate your insight into which platform is sufficient. I ‘ve found a student (no modelling skills) here with an interest in exploring this in his thesis next year at the school for advanced military studies (SAMS) the “Jedi Knights” and i may have another, who is an Excel wizard who I might convince to play along too.
The potential of this model is enormous, as the curriculum I write will be taught to EVERY major in the US Army (active and reserve) and many Navy, Air force, Marine offices, and several hundred international officers. This is about 5000 officers a year
I am hoping that this visualization and simple model will do for their appreciation and respect for risk and modelling what your book has done for mine.
I am hoping that this model will help them learn to operationalize the implications of their assumptions, and demonstrate a way to manage, appreciate and explore complexity beyond the limits of their intuition
I am envisioning a model of the network which defines a complex of nodes and pipes, each of whose performance would be modeled in a standard way with the variables above, and which would permit insight into how variable performance oalong each node serves to degrade performance more than a simple avergage of all their performances in the time period
I’ve designed a small world simulation that we are already using to let students sample these ideas simply thru game play in a small way, but we need more depth toctake it to the next level
I say all that to simply say: is XLSim3 sufficiently robust to explore this model, or would you recommend Risk Solver? In a perfect world I’d have something that I could deploy in January 2011, and I am prepared to spend my own money on this if I cant convince our leadership to provide some money, because i believe this is crucial to our profession.
I’d be grateful for your thoughts. I’d be even more grateful if you had a spare ORSA grad student with an inquiring mind and some modelling chops 😛
my work email, if you’d like to comment to me directly is email@example.com
Related articles by Zemanta
- Foreign Affairs Essay Introduces ‘Expeditionary Economics’ for Post-Conflict and Post-Disaster Efforts (kauffman.org)
- West Point gathering examines endings of US wars (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
- 10 Shifts that Change Everything (edreformer.com)
- Gathering examines endings of U.S. wars (msnbc.msn.com)
- West Point gathering examines endings of US wars (sfgate.com)
- FORSCOM Launches Web-based Tool to Support Army Force Generation (prweb.com)