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Archive for April, 2011

Weekend review, Apr 30, 2011

April 30, 2011 2 comments

  • Market in Bull Normal;  Market is Overbought on a short term basis
  • Equities have broken through the previous swing high, with signs of confidence in Asia less Japan and Europe emerging
  • US Dollar plummets to its lowest point in years.
  • Precious metals, commodities, energy  of any type are dominating, especially silver  (which is beginning to look toppy)
  • Rebalancingproject:
    • Monthly rebalancing : next re-evaluation  on/about  1 June
      • 331 is holding  EWA, MDY, IWM;
      • 631 is holding EWA, MDY, IWM
      • Quarterly rebalancing: next re-evaluation  on/about  1 July. 333 is holding DIA, MDY, IWM;
  • ETF2 notes:   add a position in EWG (Germany) adjust stops
    • Theoretical exposure is recommended at 100%;
    • model portfolio remains at 100%
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Breakout gathers strength

April 28, 2011 Leave a comment

SPY’s breakout adds another day of strength as technology begins to recover its strength: MSFT, CSCO, INTC all doing better than SPY today

Silver showing some topping behavior today; tomorrow will text the bull committment

Categories: Uncategorized

Market breakthrough finally

April 26, 2011 Leave a comment

SPY finally broke thru 135 for the first time since mid-Feb.  It remains to be seen if it  can hold above 135, but its been knocking on the door  for weeks.

SLV had its first day of pullback in recent memory. All the metals futures are up and so it remains to be seen how much correction there will actually be

Categories: Markets, Planning, research

A belief mapping exercise concerning intraday trading

April 26, 2011 1 comment

Stream-of-consciousness belief-mapping exercise on initial stops, moving to no lose, and intraday trade strategies 

Small fast losses are an expected result in my intraday trading because I am specifically looking for reversals that explode, with tight stops.  

Where I buy them, if they don’t reverse and pop, then normal behavior is to continue the selling which hits my stop. 

I like to move to NL (“no lose”), when it is moving up with power thru 1R, but not later than 2R in hand 

To have 2R in hand and then observe a -3R move to take out my iStop, and thus net -1R, is unacceptable to me, because I am using 2:1 r:r (reward to risk ratio) as a criteria for validating the tradeframe 

If I can see 2:1, frame it, and then let 2R get away and then “lose my bait” would indicate to me that I cannot manage the rewards & risks I am framing and I am in the wrong style of trading 

If I aim for 2, I’ll settle for 1, all day long 

If it goes thru 2 without stopping, i don’t deserve it, but i will take the gift 

If my average loss < -1R, then I am successfully identifying and managing risks 

If my average win > 1R, then I am successfully identifying a 2R potential, and managing it efficiently 

If my win rate >.5, then I am identifying opportunities at a better than random rate 

I notice a distinct and satisfying psychological state change when i move a trade to NL 

I manage trades better when my worst case going forward is no lose 

These rules and attitudes are well-tuned for who I am and my objectives

Silver futures weakness

April 25, 2011 Leave a comment

Silver price history.

Image via Wikipedia

uncharacteristic weakness in the silver futures overnight, stabilizing after down $2 oz;  this is about a 4.5% discount;  i’d be surprised if voume didnt come in to buy silver on sale and erase the deficit

Tortoise daily trading plan review

April 25, 2011 Leave a comment

Silver showed some topping behavior, and after an unbelievably good run its time to preserve profits in the face of intraday selling pressure. Maintain a core position in silver, and revert to tactical trading in both directions to take advantage of the uncreased liquidity

Best swing trade candidates on the basis of reward:risk ratios:

  1. Google, Inc. GOOG
  2. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. GS
  3. Wells Fargo & Co. WFC
  4. VIX VXX
  5. Bank of New York Mellon Corp BK
Categories: Uncategorized

The effect of learning preference on stress management in peak performance moments

April 24, 2011 Leave a comment

interesting use of the auditory channel to improve performance when under stress
i do the same thing with the use of drum solos to help me concentrate when trading at key moments in the trading day
 classic chokes — appear to rise from the process known colloquially as “thinking too much” or “paralysis through analysis,” and among cognitive scientists as “explicit monitoring.” Explicit monitoring, says Beilock, is “conscious attention to normally automatized physical operations that destroys the athlete’s normal fluidity.”