Profitable ETF Trading Strategies: appreciating the power of rehearsals

Rehearals are considered to be one of the highest payoff practices in the military planning process. It’s where units develop and reinforce the patterns of action and decision-making that make all the difference in combat.  Rehearsals  will improve your trading practice as well, if you understand how to do them well.

There are 4 main reasons why rehearsals can improve your trading practice:

1. Practice essential tasks.  By identifying the critical tasks in your systems, you can focus on the ones that contribute the most  to success or failure

 2. Identify weaknesses or problems in the plan. You often will not discover  gaps in your logic or problems with the concept until you have “driven the route ” from start to finish from the perspective of the operator. This is especially true if you have built your plan out of component pieces, each which are individually sound, but have not yet been linked together before.

 3. Coordinate subordinate element actions.  When you use a building block approach to trading system development, sometimes  you will discover that the sum of the parts is different than the whole. This means that there are unknown or unintended consequences of piecing things together which are not revealed until you put the plan into operation, or better yet, have a decent rehearsal to test the seams.

 4. Improve understanding of the concept of operations. Once you have driven the entire plan, you will develop a sense of completeness and appreciation for its qualities or problems areas from the top down. You will be able to see the seams, where pieces come together in utual support or in sequence.

By paying close attention to your rehearsals, and making them as realistic as possible, you will be able to dramatically improve your trading practice.

Taken together with effective After Action Reviews, rehersals are an important part of your preparation phase. Time spent here will add directly to your bottom line.

Profitable ETF Trading Strategies: understanding Average True Range (ATR)

One of the most powerful measurements in the technical trader’s toolbox is Average True Range, invented by Welles Wilder, and found prominently near the top of every major charting package that can be found on the web.  Its power is what makes it so popular. 

I always recommend to traders that they use ATR for their systems if they need a decent measure of short term volatility that is sensitive enough to detect important changes in near term volatility, smooth enough to prevent whipsaws of opinion and action, and reliable enough to be useful in all types of market conditions. 

The way the indicator is calculated and displayed though makes it very easy to misinterpret by a trader or investor who is not familiar with how it works. In my opinion, the problem is so profound that it should not be displayed in the raw form on your charts because the visual display of the information is so misleading.  Even experienced traders, who look at a lot of indicators, can overlook the problem. In fact the more indicators you use, the easier it is to forget this insight about ATR. 

The problem is simply that ATR is measured in dollars and cents and so when you see the ATR line rising on a chart you are naturally led to believe volatility is increasing.  The problem is that if price is also rising, volatility may be steady or even declining, which you cannot easily tell by inspection. 

For example: an ETF priced at 20 with an ATR of 2 is much more volatile than an ETF priced at 100 with an ATR of 5. If it were the same ETF, and you watched its ATR climbing from 2 to 5 while price went from 20 to 100 you might assume that it was more  volatile as price was climbing. The opposite would be the truth of course, but your eyes could lead you to believe otherwise unless you were constantly alert. 

Here is the refinement that I recommend. Instead of using ATR in its basic form, simply divide ATR by the current price. This will give you a number which I call “ATR%”. This is interpreted to describe the percent fluctuation of the value of the asset that can be considered normal given recent price action. By recent price action I mean the last 14 trading days, in the default construction of the indicator. 

Use of the ATR% will allow you to do the following things very easily, things which cannot be done using straight ATR numbers, which represent a dollar denominated “normal” fluctuation. 

You can use a time series of a single asset to see how its volatility is truly changing over time. 

You can compare the ATR% of an asset against a set of other assets, and rank them into a scheme of relative volatility at that moment. 

You can use statistics to further classify and describe a set of assets into logical, statistical sets 

You can compare sets of volatilities against other time periods to help you with market classification. 

Average True Range is an important tool of technical analysis, but one which has serious  problems in interpretation for novice or very busy traders. Know your tools!

Profitable ETF Trading Strategies: Respect Volatility, use its power for good

At the most fundamental level, volatility is the fluctuation in the price of an asset. The greter the price swings in the shorter periods of time, the greater the volatility. Periods of great volatility are like thunderstorms. They get your attention.

Volatility is an absolute requirement for a trader to make money. Most investors look at volatility with fear and trepidation, and properly so, because wild swings in price are an indication of uncertainty about the fair value of the asset in question. This uncertainty will play havoc with your bottom line as an investor. It is a normal tradeoff consideration for investors to give up the potential of outsize gains in exchange for protection against downside volatility.

 

It is clear from scholarly studies that increases in volatility correlate strongly with declines in equity value. If you look at bear markets you see volatility everywhere, leading to tremendous gains on up days and tremendous losses on down days. This volatility  is what drives longer term investors to the sidelines and creates the window of opportunity for longer term value players to establish excellent entry points for long term holdings in beaten down companies and sectors. This eagerness to buy value at a discount is why we see buying pressure even in the midst of the worst bear markets.

 

Traders who are looking to make their loving off the buying selling of inventory need the volatility of longer term position traders and short term scalpers to move price in swings that last long enough for them to realize their gains while offering the buyers and sellers from other time frames reasons to get in and out of these positions as well.

 

Because swing traders do not need fundamental beliefs in their positions they are able to operate successfully in swing trades during bear markets, and providing that they can manage their risk in the periods of higher volatility, should be eager to trade on the most violent of das in the market.  For a swing trader the greater the intraday volatility, the easier it is to see opportunities and frame favorable trades in terms of reward to risk. 

Like electricity, volatility can be your best friend or your worst nightmare. As a trader you must learn to use the power of volatility responsibly and effectively.  Stay grounded and respect the power for your own good. 

Profitable ETF Trading Strategies: Good traders know and exploit their edge

As an individual trader, you must be absolutely clear about where your edge is in the market place so that you can ensure your trading strategies are designed to put you into positions where your edge can make the difference against the average market return. 

Let’s be clear too: your edge must give you a reliable means of achieving better than average market returns or you are much better off simply buying and holding lowest cost broad market index exchange traded funds. To do otherwise would be a waste of your time and get you a lower than easily achievable returns on your capital. 

When I consider institutional traders, I see their advantages in computing power, depth of fundamental research, administrative trading cost efficiency  and legitimate inside information, I quickly conclude that there is no way I can find an edge by trading in direct competition with these organizations on a fundamental basis. 

This means I am going to steer clear of situations where my edge would consist of having a better understanding of the fundamental business model and market opportunities of individual firms. The fact that so many businesses go out of business due to misjudgments of market conditions when led by  experts who have a made a career out of narrowly focusing on that line of business suggests to me that I can not hope to have an edge in fundamental analysis. 

I also know that I am not capable of scalping better or market making better than brokerage houses who are fighting for fractions of pennies on large volumes in time periods measures in fractions of seconds. So I will stay out of that trading environment as well. 

I know that I need enough opportunities to allow my statistical edge in trading to manifest, and so I cannot afford to have overly long holding periods and wait for the ship to come in. I believe I need to be like Walmart and trade in quality merchandise that everyone wants, take my decent profits quickly and cycle through inventory efficiently. I want to be the swing middle man helping the market achieve orderly distribution. 

This leads me to look for my edges in the swing trade time periods of 1-5 days, and looking to lock in profits and/establish  no-lose positions as early as possible on the entry day, and only hold overnight when I have clear indications that the extra overnight risk is justifiable. 

Know your edge and stay within your area of competitiveness.  

Profitable ETF Trading Strategies: Stalking your way to success

One of the more neglected topics in trading systems development is the concept of stalking. Traders, particularly early in their career will tend to spend  lot of time, if not ll of their time, focusing on the entry, reasoning that if they can get that part right they will have some control over the market’s inevitable follow thru, which must go according to plan, because of the predictive power of their perfect entry technique. 

If, as a trader, you are able to survive this philosophical approach to the market, based on certainty, control and predictability, you will move along to other aspects of a complete trading system, like the exits, position sizing, trade management of open positions, portfolio heat, overnight rick management, re-entry and matching system performance to specific market conditions. 

These are non-trivial issues in the development of an effective system. Stalking the trade however has to do with the period before the trade is engaged, and offers you opportunities to leverage what may be your greatest edge as an individual trader, if you have discipline and patience to do it properly. 

I believe that stalking is intimately and directly connected to your deep understanding of the edge your trading system has. The better you understand your system and your edge, and the market conditions that favor its use, the better position you will be in to stalk effectively. 

Think of a pride of hungry lions on the hunt. Their stalking consists of knowing their market (their prey) and where they will inevitably congregate in large numbers (watering holes and  grazing lands which represent their trading opportunities). Effective stalking consists of taking advantage of their natural strengths in the market conditions that favor their methods. 

Liosn will sniff the air at a hint of a suggestion of the possibility of their prey. They will scan widely and contuously and begin fllowing the scent until they can vector in on their target and begin their hunt in earnest. Their stalking gets them reliably into the right position to begin the hunt.  That’s what your stalking must do for you.

Your stalking should include some early warning signs that let you know the market and trade conditions that favr your system are starting to emerge from the market mosaic. You can start posturing yourself for action early enough to conduct trade framing and execution rehearsals, and contingency planning, so that if the favorable conditions continue to develop you will be able to take the trade in stride, with full preparation and risk management in hand. 

Depending on the nature of your system and your edge, your stalking may take a different form, but it will always incorporate an early earning system, preparation planning and rehearsals if you want to achieve best results. 

Patience and discipline are the essential qualities of mind that you will need to exploit your deep understanding of your edge.

Profitable ETF Trading Strategies: Finding your best mental state for trading

In previous articles I have described my concept of the “zero-state”, and the combination of personal satisfaction and improved bottomline performance I get when I trade from that state. 

In this article I want to describe some other mental states that traders I know find useful and consider the implications for your own journey of self discovery and trading mastery.  It is my hope that you may discover that it works for you or that the journey of discovery may awaken you to other states along the way that you will find equally satisfying and useful. 

After all, trading from an emotion free state (like my description of the zero state) may not be the best mental state for you. For example, I know traders who find it necessary and useful to achieve a state of emotional alpha male competitiveness in order to enter the ring of combat, which is how they perceive the markets and interpret their role. 

Without being mentally prepared for the combat they anticipate, and therefore see, they will be undercutting their own effectiveness in the trading arena. 

Another effective trader I know has a need to see himself as a pure mechanical businessman and must take a different approach: that of disinterested observer;  He gets so disinterested that he cannot even watch the trades unfolding lest he start adapting his rules in mid trade. His analysis showed that this was not adding value, and so his mental state needed to be as far away from engagement as possible. 

These were  just 3 examples of different mental states being suitable for effective traders, which implies that there may be as many unique states as there are traders, which means that you must use introspection and self knowledge to discover what works for you psychologically as well as needing to examine trading strategies that suit your personality, time frame, risk profile and working hypothesis of market behavior. 

How will you know? Know thyself, consult with trusted others, but above all else, make sure you are trading with real money in very small position sizes to assess the effects of market, system, money and self on your total trader’s performance system. Without that essential step you are postponing the day of judgment. The sooner you get into the game, the sooner you will engage in real learning.

Profitable ETF Trading Strategies: Experiencing the Zero-State

For me, achieving the zero-state is a necessary precondition for trading at my peak. In other essays I have described it as a place where adjective pairs of mental states cancel each other out, leaving only a moment of pure being.

It is the space between the words that we know, a moment and a place of freedom, where all notes may be struck, the moment precisely before the next action occurs.

For a horn player, it is the moment where he has gathered his breath and is prepared to initiate the note, the pure balance point between inhale and exhale.

For a diver it is the moment of motionless serenity between ascent and descent.

Imagine a Cartesian coordinate semantic grid system with adjective pairs arrayed about the origin, with each word having its precisely paired antonym and where the midpoint of the ray that connects them is bisected at the origin. That spot in the semantic meaning gris is where I seek to trade from in order to have my trading takes its purest expression in both action and no-action.

When I trade from this moment, this place, my results generate neither joy nor sadness, and simply are what they are. This allows me to enter the next trade with no emotional charge.

It is also keenly important to my style of trading where I am looking for the hesitation point in a channel trade or in a breakout, where price remains poised between fear and greed, where bulls and bears are in timeless balance and the next leg of the move will begin just as the last leg ends.

When I am able to stalk the price to that moment of harmony, that zero-state where momentum transitions I am able to refine my entry to very tight level levels and find initial capital preservation stops that are absurdly close, which enable me to minimize open risk and move to “no lose” trade conditions very quickly.

 When I know that barring an interruption of connectivity or market discontinuity I will never do worse than break even,  this is an immensely freeing psychological state to be in as a professional trader and yet it’s value for me is in the spiritual nourishment and satisfaction I experience having a brush with Truth and Perfection in a small way for a fleeting moment in my life.

In judo we speak of a moment in a throw where you and your partner are equally sure that the other judo player is throwing you with exactly the same force and skill as you are throwing them. In that moment the throws stop, time slows, and you are suspended in a moment of pure being.

What I like about trading is that as I approach the zero state my equity curve smoothes and my trading practice is rewarded

Profitable ETF Trading Strategies: Trading From the Zero-State

One of the most important qualities of the professional trader is the ability to manage your psychological state.

Psychology is such an important component of shorter term trading that it can make all the difference between success and failure.

In my own trading, the essential state of mind I must be in to trade at an optimal level is what I call the “zero-state”.

For me, it represents an emotionally neutral state that is neither happy nor sad, neither overconfident nor fearful. The adjective “calm” starts to come close to what I mean but there is an important difference. “

Calm” is part of an adjective pair, whose partner has precisely the opposite meaning. “Stormy” is usually given as the antonym. For me, this moment is one that may not be contained in a conventional adjective that describes a state, because I associate adjectives as being part of a word pair, with its opposite on the other side of the continuum whose exact center I think of as “zero”, as on the number line.

Conceptually, the Japanese term “mu” comes fairly close to this idea, having been variously described as neither yes nor no, but a state in-between that does not acknowledge the question being asked as one that may be answered by wither yes or now, with the answer existing in a different plane of reality.

Serenity is a word that describes a state that comes even closer than calm, because it suggests for me something more like a timeless eternity of “no-emotion”, where I am not connected to the outcome in a personal meaningful way.

For me the pure form of the act of trading is to achieve a timeless correctness, to take actions or to refrain from actions in perfect balance with the needs of the market t that moment, to be nothing more or less than that which is required ideally.

In Cartesian coordinates the point (0,0), is called the origin and is central to all subsequent mathematical operations. It is the point from which all action begins and where excursions are grounded for reference. It is the ultimate reference point that links together individual cases .

Profitable ETF Trading Strategies: How science can improve your trading

Trading by its very nature is filled with uncertainty. Any human endeavor that has such a strong psychological component must be uncertain, until such time as human nature itself undergoes a fundamental change. 

It is uncertainty which helps make a market for assets. It’s what helps drive the discovery process to uncover the relative value different parties place on an asset. It encourages risk-taking behavior in real time to anticipate the short term future direction of prices. 

Uncertainty and psychology don’t necessarily make it easy on the trader to act with confidence and commitment. On the contrary it provides opportunities for self-doubt indecision, and will often keep you on the sidelines when your rational mind and trading system may signal you to act. 

Traders that set aside the uncertainty of the moment and act with conviction based on sound trading principles and thoroughly vetted trading strategies have a definite edge over those who are coming from a weak place. 

One of the mental disciplines that I have found to be very helpful has been to adopt a trading approach that relies on a scientific metaphor to focus my mind and free me to act in a sound manner. Here is the technique’s basic approach. 

Once yo have a reason to believe in the soundness of a basic strategy, define the boundaries of the idea and circumstances in which you have an edge. 

It may be in a price level, in a chart pattern, in a combination of indicators that have yielded statistically sound returns in certain market conditions that are now in play. 

Find the specific price levels that give you clear evidence that:

1. the idea is beginning to work

2. the idea is failing

3. the idea has fully manifested itself and the profit target is realized 

These specific price levels allow you to define your initial risk, set the triggers for entry, initial capital preservation stop, and profit target to harvest your reward for action. 

By clearly defining the terms of your trading idea you have established a hypothesis that can be tested based on the pure evidence of price and eliminate some of the counterproductive self talk that leads to inaction. It allows you to let the trade decide its own results, and gives you a case study that can add to your knowledge of the system’s performance. 

By trading it at a risk level that allows you to dispassionately separate yourself from the results you allow the trading idea to stand on its own merits and remove the variable of your own discretion from the mix. 

This approach is not a natural way to think about the market, but it can do wonders for your discipline and your bottom line if you have reasonably robust trading strategies.

Profitable ETF Trading Strategies: 8 attributes of quality research

There are plenty of snake oil salesmen in the financial advisory business, but there are by far many more conscientious professionals prepared to act as good fiduciaries for you. At the same time there are many people willing to take on full responsibility for the design and implementation of some or all of their own investment program. 

This article describes the characteristics of quality financial research, to help you identify the difference between quality and snake oil, using the standards of scholarly research to inform our decision-making. 

What distinguishes quality research in any field from pure opinion has everything to do with rigor, the design of experiments, and a respect for the difficulties in pursuit of the truth. 

If you can see the following qualities in the research of someone who proposes to provide you advice or financial services then you can have more confidence in achieving your financial goals. 

Quality research should be: systematic, controlled, empirical, amoral, public and a critical examination of the world, informed by theory, and framed in a hypothesis. 

Here are some brief insights to get you started down the path of critical thinking: 

1. Systematic: the research program should be unhurried, thorough, comprehensive and organized. There should be evidence of an attention to detail and a commitment to completing the testing no matter the time or complications in performing the work. 

2. Controlled: care should be given to establish the difference between correlation and causation; in the identification of cause and effect and in identifying dependent and independent variables. 

3. Empirical: we want to see evidence from the real world, that is replicable, verifiable’ in the case of back-testing we want to ensure that only the information available at the time is used in hypothetical decision-making in order to be truly realistic. 

4. Amoral: we want facts and conclusions to succeed or fall on their own merits, and in pursuit of truth; not simply to support a biased opinion. 

5. Public: we want to see all the details of the research and they should be independently verifiable; we don’t want to see black boxes or special testing circumstances unavailable for inspection. 

6. Critical examination: real scientists are concerned about overstating their claims and are in search of evidence to disprove their hypothesis, rather than looking for reasons to agree with their suppositions. A scientist is concerned about finding the hidden flaws in their own reasoning and hypothesis, because of the implications of their conclusions. 

7. Informed by Theory: we want the world to conform to reasonable processes; this bias helps protect us against statistical anomalies and data mining 

8. Framed in a hypothesis: we want to see how the experiment can allow the hypothesis to be disproven in a clear-cut, meaningful way. We want the ideas to be testable and falsifiable in unambiguous terms.

These ideas are strongly related to a conceptual approach to trading which establishes price levels at which we can state clearly that our idea is either working or failing, which gives us explicit criteria for entering and exiting.