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Weekend reflection process
a depiction of Sun Wukong wielding his staff (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
RJ: the asker of great questions, asked:
Hi Ken,
Do you have anything written on a weekend review process for a trading journal and trade chart markups?
Double loop learning requires review of work but I don’t have a well-defined process for weekend reviews.
I searched the chatroom and your essays but either didn’t use the right search terms or just didn’t find anything written.
Could you recommend some reading or anything else so I can develop an effective weekend process?
Thank you.
RJ
I replied: Try this on: this is what i find myself doing, over and over until someday I get it right:
0. Center ourselves on who we are and feel gratitude for the gift of life and consciousness to reflect on the wonder that is our Self and the world around us
1. Accept who we are and our desire to improve
2. Review what we aim to know, to do, to be (review goals and objectives)
3. Review the facts about what was done, including detailed performance stats as part of our ongoing study
4. Observe the slope of the trendlines and the volatility of our performance (all our trades and all our actions and all our feelings)
5. Review the forms and checklists to ensure discipline was performed; what did we overlook, where did we take shortcuts, and why?
6. Look for moments arising from the facts that seem to be important, trusting in our intuitions to nominate reflections
7. Follow the trails of reflection, connected to facts
8. Identify the A HA! moments
9. Conduct the 4 part learning journal exercise (A Ha moment, Reflection, Commitment to action, Results)
10. Commit our spirit and self to the next cycle of the wheel of improvement which continues to turn
this is what happens when i start writing after reading from the book of tales of Sun Wukong (The Monkey King)
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the engineering approach to problem solving
The hybrid approach you referred to I think reflects the sense of the sociotechnical process. I can’t imagine why people and organizations would not intentionally adopt that as the default position when considering organizational issues, and yet I see people polarizing around either or approach all time in my organization.
It seems to me that the engineering approach really appeals to people who think they have a good handle on the situational assumptions in the problem area he can rely on rules of cause and effect and planning factors lead them to a efficient and effective solution. The simplifying assumption that sociology doesn’t have a major effect and what they’re about to do can sometimes be warranted but is often the assumption that we come to regret later.
MG Fuller: over/under was 1
I won the office pool on when MG Fuller would lose his job. The over under was 1 day. I picked under. He knew precisely what the consequences would be. Such are the consequences of telling the unvarnished truth in public
The 4 part learning journal
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My dissertation research involving planning and managing a network of related Participatory Action Research projects. For most of these I was doing theoretical, methodological and practitioner literature reviews and background readings to supplement the group actions. At the same time I was maintaining an individual learning journal to record my reflections on the research processes as they unfolded. I adapted Kurt Lewin’s two column journal into a four column learning journal to help me keep track of all the moving pieces. It turned out to be a very effective way for me to record the insights in the moment, to extend the learning with reflective thinking, to commit to actions, and recording the subsequent results of my actions. This ended up being a good way to maintain my research and reading notes as well, since I kept it in a searchable Word document and used keywords and tags for all my entries. After using this structured note sheet for several months I realized that it was a manifestation of the action research cycle itself, and discovered how life had come to imitate art once more. Although this seems like a small administrative thing, I found the four part learning journal’s structure to be an indispensible tool in integrating my projects, notes, reflections and findings. The table below is the basic format I used. I found the landscape paper orientation a better fit for keeping extensive notes. I have shared this simple tool with a number of graduate students who I am mentoring and they report similar findings on its usefulness.
| The A-Ha! moment or insight | Reflective thinking notes | Commitment to action notes | Results of actions taken |
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Forced cuts and Congressional politics
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Given the political climate in DC and the cynical, self-serving behavior of both parties which is the predictable downside of an entrenched 2 party system, the following scenario really concerns me:
I dont think the Republicans in Congress want to win the Presidential election in 2012, since they know the economy isnt going to heal in the time frame 2012-2014. There’s too much long term structural damage.
I believe they want to win the Senate in 2012 so that they can manage legislation that a President is forced to go along with, especially THIS President who has shown that he can be rolled.
So, if the 2 parties and their super committee cant sort through the budget reduction agreements in time, then automatic cuts go into place which supports the Republican agenda, DoD will take an extraordinary hit and this will be played out as gutting defense and attach itself tot he President which will tube his chances, as well as the Dems in the Senate who will be seen as ineffective weaklings.
That plays into the narrative for 2012 for Repubs to win the Senate.
What a horrible scenario, and what a horrible way to run a railroad
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Tiny little motors
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-14763223
some real cutting edge nanotech application here: electric motors in a single molecule. The potential for health care is extraordinary
Daily trading plan review June 19, 2011
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5XCpDAc72kemphasis on defensive sectors; introduces the concept of “Frog” trading targets
weekend strategy report, June 04, n2011
Image by World Economic Forum via Flickr
- Market in Bull Normal; Market is neutral on a short term basis
- Equities remained sideways all week, with volatility increasingly slightly
- Rebalancingproject:
- Monthly rebalancing : next re-evaluation on/about 1 June
- 331 is holding IYR, EEM, TLT
- 631 is holding IYR, MDY, IWM
- Quarterly rebalancing: next re-evaluation on/about 1 July. 333 is holding DIA, MDY, IWM;
- Monthly rebalancing : next re-evaluation on/about 1 June
- ETF2 notes: selling IJK, XRT
- Theoretical exposure is recommended at 0%;
- model portfolio is at 20% after the sells
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- weekend review May 15, 2011 (kansasreflections.wordpress.com)
Image via Wikipedia
Important insights from one of our workshop participants this week: a ton of good learning inside these ideas
Our initial stop placement reflects the information available when our trade is initiated. Any price action after the trade provides additional information and can be used to update the stop placement. An example is the use of the MACD histogram to exit before taking a full 1R loss.
If your system is designed to catch singles, don’t wait for the home run before exiting. Take the single and move on (until you can recognize when the market is making it obvious that this time you should hold on for more).
Markets may have unique characteristics that should be taken into account when making framing and trading decisions. DBA, for example, can be framed with tights stops, seems to make orderly moves, and sees more action only after the opening of the grain futures markets.
Framing trades with tights stops right after the open feels like getting caught in a dolphin hunt (the underwater tornado). The lunch and afternoon sessions tend to provide a better environment for identifying trades using the WMB method.
The importance of understanding the type of move you’re trying to capture (F –> C; B –> A), and matching your entries/exits with that type of move.
After learning how to trade large index ETFs (IWM, SPY…), index futures provide a way of using the same skills to produce higher returns.
Respect the R.
Opportunities are available any time the market is open.
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1st hour statistics for high of the day & low of the day
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some analysis in our chatroom today examined hundreds of symbols (ETFs and large cap stocks) that make their high of the day or low of the day in the first hour of trading. To our surprise there are a considerable number who’s probability of an early high or low of the day is greater than 95%.
That’s a staggering number, especially when we examine how much follow thru after the first hour there can be; we’ll be working this up into a tarding staregy pretty quickly because we like the odds and the additional control it gives over our trading, once the morning shenanigans at the open are past
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