Weekend review, Apr 30, 2011

• Market in Bull Normal;  Market is Overbought on a short term basis
• Equities have broken through the previous swing high, with signs of confidence in Asia less Japan and Europe emerging
• US Dollar plummets to its lowest point in years.
• Precious metals, commodities, energy  of any type are dominating, especially silver  (which is beginning to look toppy)
• Rebalancingproject:
  • Monthly rebalancing : next re-evaluation  on/about  1 June
    • 331 is holding  EWA, MDY, IWM;
    • 631 is holding EWA, MDY, IWM
    • Quarterly rebalancing: next re-evaluation  on/about  1 July. 333 is holding DIA, MDY, IWM;
• ETF2 notes:   add a position in EWG (Germany) adjust stops
  • Theoretical exposure is recommended at 100%;
  • model portfolio remains at 100%

Related articles

• Why Rebalancing Your Portfolio Is Important (money.usnews.com)
• Simple Portfolio Rebalancing Spreadsheet Tool (mymoneyblog.com)

Breakout gathers strength

SPY’s breakout adds another day of strength as technology begins to recover its strength: MSFT, CSCO, INTC all doing better than SPY today

Silver showing some topping behavior today; tomorrow will text the bull committment

Market breakthrough finally

SPY finally broke thru 135 for the first time since mid-Feb.  It remains to be seen if it  can hold above 135, but its been knocking on the door  for weeks.

SLV had its first day of pullback in recent memory. All the metals futures are up and so it remains to be seen how much correction there will actually be

A belief mapping exercise concerning intraday trading

Stream-of-consciousness belief-mapping exercise on initial stops, moving to no lose, and intraday trade strategies 

Small fast losses are an expected result in my intraday trading because I am specifically looking for reversals that explode, with tight stops.  

Where I buy them, if they don’t reverse and pop, then normal behavior is to continue the selling which hits my stop. 

I like to move to NL (“no lose”), when it is moving up with power thru 1R, but not later than 2R in hand 

To have 2R in hand and then observe a -3R move to take out my iStop, and thus net -1R, is unacceptable to me, because I am using 2:1 r:r (reward to risk ratio) as a criteria for validating the tradeframe 

If I can see 2:1, frame it, and then let 2R get away and then “lose my bait” would indicate to me that I cannot manage the rewards & risks I am framing and I am in the wrong style of trading 

If I aim for 2, I’ll settle for 1, all day long 

If it goes thru 2 without stopping, i don’t deserve it, but i will take the gift 

If my average loss < -1R, then I am successfully identifying and managing risks 

If my average win > 1R, then I am successfully identifying a 2R potential, and managing it efficiently 

If my win rate >.5, then I am identifying opportunities at a better than random rate 

I notice a distinct and satisfying psychological state change when i move a trade to NL 

I manage trades better when my worst case going forward is no lose 

These rules and attitudes are well-tuned for who I am and my objectives

Silver futures weakness

Image via Wikipedia

uncharacteristic weakness in the silver futures overnight, stabilizing after down $2 oz;  this is about a 4.5% discount;  i’d be surprised if voume didnt come in to buy silver on sale and erase the deficit

Related articles

• Silver surges to 31-year high, gold hits new record (telegraph.co.uk)
• Silver Flirts With $50 (online.wsj.com)
• The S.L.A (Silver Liberation Army) strikes back. (noahmuller.wordpress.com)
• Silver Breaks Forty Dollars An Ounce (altnewsreport.wordpress.com)
• Silver Wheaton expects ‘flurry of transactions’ once market cools (business.financialpost.com)
• silver bars (imbrandon.com)
• Silver is Up 45% & Still Climbing (cointrader.wordpress.com)
• How to Keep Your Silver Safe (businessinsider.com)
• What Is Silver Screaming About? (businessinsider.com)
• Buying Silver and Avoiding the Sharks (businessinsider.com)

Tortoise daily trading plan review

Silver showed some topping behavior, and after an unbelievably good run its time to preserve profits in the face of intraday selling pressure. Maintain a core position in silver, and revert to tactical trading in both directions to take advantage of the uncreased liquidity

Best swing trade candidates on the basis of reward:risk ratios:

1. Google, Inc. GOOG
2. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. GS
3. Wells Fargo & Co. WFC
4. VIX VXX
5. Bank of New York Mellon Corp BK

The effect of learning preference on stress management in peak performance moments

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2010/09/the-tight-collar-the-new-science-of-choking/

interesting use of the auditory channel to improve performance when under stress

i do the same thing with the use of drum solos to help me concentrate when trading at key moments in the trading day

 classic chokes — appear to rise from the process known colloquially as “thinking too much” or “paralysis through analysis,” and among cognitive scientists as “explicit monitoring.” Explicit monitoring, says Beilock, is “conscious attention to normally automatized physical operations that destroys the athlete’s normal fluidity.”

Related articles

• Intraday Trading (interadaystockcalls.wordpress.com)
• Euro Futures 4/11/2011 (elitefuturestrading.wordpress.com)
• Trading Wisdom Via Linda Raschke (businessinsider.com)
• Sharing my BrainMode power report (kansasreflections.wordpress.com)
• Day Trade Well: The Evolution (businessinsider.com)
• Patience is a Virtue: First Wal-Mart Target Hit! (community.tradeking.com)
• 1 reviews of mavisviz20 (rateitall.com)
• Responsys up more than 31 pct in 1st trading day (seattlepi.com)
• Tech Issues Lead TA Stocks Up (israelnationalnews.com)

Educating professional practice by emphasizing worked examples

this essay discusses the challenge of educating computer science students on writing professional quality production code. It informs our own inquiry into what to teach at CGSC and how to teach it. I think it has a lot to say about what we should be emphasizing  for our staff officers.

One of our graduating seniors shared the below blog post with me, and I shared it with all the faculty who teach the lower division courses in Georgia Tech’s College of Computing.  Andrew makes the strong statement in his blog post: “Students shouldn’t be able to graduate with a Computer Science degree from Georgia Tech without being able to read and write production quality code.”

My sense is that most of the faculty who have responded agree with Andrew.  Our students should know how to read significant code (e.g., walking through the whole Linux kernel in OS course).  One of our professors talked about the value of watching his own code be rewritten by a professional, expert programmer — it was stunning how much better the code got.  We could teach more about readingproduction code at the University, but I’m not sure that we could teach enough aboutwriting production code at the University.  As Bjarne Stroustrup pointed out, faculty don’t build much these days.  Programming well has much in common with craft and art, and it’s not something that the University does well.

If the University could not teach reading and writing production code well, where should students learn it?  One answer is, “On the job.”  Craft is often taught as an apprenticeship.  I worry that the computing industry has given up on its professional development responsibilities.  We talk about people being lifelong learners.  Is that entirely an individual responsibility?  When I was at Bell Labs and Bellcore, there were dozens of classes that I could (and did!) take. Where has that gone?  Is everyone a contractor these days, or does industry have a responsibility to develop its human resources?

i face this exact challenge at a military college for the US Army when it comes to educating officers on how to write logistics support plans that incorporate a lot of science and art together. The Army has been doing stability operations for so long that we are losing experience in how to support major conventional operations, which is a lot more challenging than the current mission sets the officers have been experiencing for the last 5 years.

This essay inspires me to go after the problem from the angle of having experts rewrite student-generated solutions in their presence, and then graduating to an exercise where a group of students works on improving a first iteration solution.  Thanks for the effort!

Related articles

• Friends In Egypt’s Army (andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com)
• Teaching Comp – Section One (engresearcher40.wordpress.com)
• Show Me The Code (computinged.wordpress.com)
• Superintendent’s Report – April 2011 (wsbsuperintendent.wordpress.com)
• Ideas for End of the School Year Activities (brighthub.com)
• Iraqi Infantry Attain Logistical Support Capacity (waronterrornews.typepad.com)
• Larry Strauss: Get Your Heads out of the Clouds, Education Leaders (huffingtonpost.com)
• Belmont essayist Kohn puts education system to the test (boston.com)
• Metro Tech/ASU Writing Center opens (rakschoolsetc.wordpress.com)
• Remixing Writing: A Digital Essay (theunquietlibrarian.wordpress.com)
• The Definitive C++ Book Guide and List (stackoverflow.com)
• Impact of increasing number of post-docs in CS (computinged.wordpress.com)
• Young Black Males Getting Education & Life Goals through Video Games (hbculifestyle.wordpress.com)
• Should we teach our kids computer programming regardless of their technical inclinations? (fatherinastrangeland.wordpress.com)
• Is a Large or Small College Right for You? (education.com)
• The Student-Centered Classroom (sandwalk.blogspot.com)
• Self-Taught Programmers vs CS-Educated Programmers (chezpete.posterous.com)
• Evaluation of an Audience Response System in Library … (istl.org)

The importance of being “gritty”

Image via Wikipedia

am collecting data now in 3 different areas to support my research into the effects of using Participatory Action Research to conduct curriculum design that focuses on the experiences of faculty and students to drive the selection of topics, and the content of lessons that are satisfying to them, as opposed to the traditional method of awaiting fro policy guidance from Dept of the Army and then conducting pilots programs.

i am examining the effects in 3 dimensions:
1. comparing the PAR generated curriculum to traditional curriculum as measured on degrees of satisfaction in quant and qual surveys of students and faculty

2. comparing the cognitive maps produced by analyzing the policy pronouncements and white papers from DA, and the aggregate of collected faculty and student comments about what “ought” to be covered in the curriculum to identify areas of overlap and underlap

3. the effect of the PAR process on my own teaching practice by examining my learning journal notes, blog entries, email exchanges with trusted others

my challenge is the variety of mixed methods and protocols, and will ultimately involve an attempt at integration of insights from 3 varied perspectives

am just grinding it out, chunk by chunk

Dr Anders Ericcson’s life work offers insights into the importance of “grit” on getting things done: it appears to be much more important than natural talent or brilliance

This post is part of my effort to keep generating the psychic energy it takes to take the last few steps of a long journey, by committing in public to completing the task of my dissertation.

Ihate finishing things: i am much more prone to start something new to keep the inspiring energy of entreprenuerial activity going

Related articles

• Social sciences, arts ‘should be job-orientated” (lookatvietnam.com)
• UVa 567 (codebusters.wordpress.com)
• Position Statement on Student Services and Library and Learning Resource Center Program Support for Distributed Learning (aacc.nche.edu)
• Craig Federighi – a worthy replacement to Serlet, and a nerd impostor to boot (edibleapple.com)
• Another story demonstrating Apple’s executive success (amanwithaphd.wordpress.com)
• Video: Lustre Community Comes Together (insidehpc.com)
• Celebrating Betrand Serlet and Craig Federighi (wilshipley.com)
• Why I Want to Do CreateAthon Again (createathonchatt.wordpress.com)
• Featured Blogger: Stacey Archer – Walk in her Shoes… (eof737.wordpress.com)
• Stephan Adig: sudo over ssh magic (shermann.name)
• My peers are not my tribe at Attempting Elegance (attemptingelegance.com)
• Librarian at HSL receives Chancellor’s Diversity Recognition Award for Faculty Leadership (hslnews.wordpress.com)
• Course Description of TMD (arifianunnes3.wordpress.com)
• Luke Sullivan, Now Savannah-bound (adpulp.com)
• Curriculum Planning Retreat, April 14-15, Federal Way (elearningcentralia.wordpress.com)
• US Soccer – New Curriculum (theoriginalwinger.com)
• Show Me The Code (computinged.wordpress.com)
• Dr. Anne Sheehan: A Well Earned Retirement (stroseenglish.wordpress.com)
• WSU College of Education announces three faculty awards: Fellowships Support Diversity, Mathematics Education Efforts at WSU (wsunews.wsu.edu)

charts of interest and some visual framing

Image via Wikipedia

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zRUNSN_jGbc  

charts of interest from the weekend report of Apr 24, 2011

some strength in the US techs;

i also like the support being found in DBA and DBC, ag and blended commodities, respectively